Stephen Fishbach Blogs: Show's Worst Players Will Make Survivor: Caramoan Great

TV Watch

Survivor

By Stephen Fishbach

02/13/2013 at 10:15 AM EST

Stephen Fishbach was the runner-up on Survivor: Tocantins and has been blogging about Survivor strategy for PEOPLE.com since 2009. Follow him on Twitter @stephenfishbach.

"Survivor's not meant to be a comedy routine."
– Cochran, Survivor: South Pacific

Here's a riddle for you: What do a zombie, a flip-flopper and two train wrecks have in common?

They're all part of a new cast of "favorites" on Survivor: Caramoan (Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET on CBS), the new season that matches 10 new competitors against some of the worst players in the show's history. Game on?

Survivor may be the only competitive event on earth where being awful makes you an all-star. Brandon Hantz and Erik Reichenbach share the distinction of literally making the worst moves ever when they both sacrificed individual immunity right at the endgame, and were immediately blindsided.

John Cochran ruined his own game – as well as his entire tribe's – with a horrendous flip. Francesca Hogi was first off. Corinne Kaplan would have lost a jury vote to Phillip Sheppard. Brenda Lowe's alliance betrayed her. Andrea Boehlke shambled along as part of Boston Rob's zombie army. Even Dawn Meehan – a paragon of normalcy in the lunatic asylum of the Favorites tribe – had an early-season breakdown.

How did Malcolm Freberg slip into this casting net that only dragged for bottom-feeders? Gazing around that island on day one, he must have wondered what he did so wrong. Remember – nobody had seen Malcolm's season, himself included. Even he made a catastrophic, head-slapping move when he didn't guarantee Denise a deal at the Philippines final four.

Where's Jim Rice? Where's Marty Piombo? For the love of God, where's Jane Bright? They were big characters ... and also big players. It's like this cast was specially selected to only include the very worst. You were disqualified from coming if your Survivor IQ was above a flatline.

The producers, of course, know exactly what they're doing. Even the show's promos are set to the tune of Ozzy Osbourne's "Crazy Train." The more shouting matches there are, the more emotional cataclysms, the more cultural moments the show creates, the more people Tweet. And the greater the odds that a clip winds up on The Soup.

The cast of Survivor: Caramoan

Monty Brinton / CBS

Bad Means Good

Don't get me wrong – I'm not complaining. Survivor is a TV show, not a political convention. Bring on the crazy. It's unreasonable to compare this season to some idealized memory of what the show once was: 16 strangers who stop being polite and start getting malnourished. Let's get a cast full of Phillips out there communing with their ancient ancestors and misquoting the Bhagavadi Gita. Could you ask for better television?

Furthermore, lunatics can create big challenges for a strategist. It's easy to play a game against someone who's behaving rationally. How do you manipulate a person whose only allegiances are to camera time and the voices in their head? We could see the emergence of a Survivor super-genius.

And some players really need a second chance to mature. Parvati Shallow wasn't Parvati her first time out. I could see Brenda or Corinne or Dawn doing something ferocious. I've long argued it stunts new players to be cast on a tribe with returnees. How might Cochran or Francesca fare without Ozzy or Boston Rob overshadowing them?

Oh – and the fans? Does anybody really care about the fans? They're like the gladiators thrown into the lion pit: there to be eaten. As horrible as the favorites are, there's no comparison between watching a few seasons on television and in-game experience.

Of course, it's always possible for someone to pull a Running Man (the Schwarzenegger movie, not the dance move) and beat the favorites at their own game. If it's going to be anyone, my money's on Reynold Toepfer. He has a kind of Malcolm-ish vibe – strategic, athletic, and social. It didn't hurt that he gave me a shout-out in his "Survivor memorable moment." See below.

Pre-season Fishy for Reynold! Because it's gotta go to somebody!

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Report: Tracking system needed to fight fake drugs

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fighting the problem of fake drugs will require putting medications through a chain of custody like U.S. courts require for evidence in a trial, the Institute of Medicine reported Wednesday.

The call for a national drug tracking system comes a week after the Food and Drug Administration warned doctors, for the third time in about a year, that it discovered a counterfeit batch of the cancer drug Avastin that lacked the real tumor-killing ingredient.

Fake and substandard drugs have become an increasing concern as U.S. pharmaceutical companies move more of their manufacturing overseas. The risk made headlines in 2008 when U.S. patients died from a contaminated blood thinner imported from China.

The Institute of Medicine report made clear that this is a global problem that requires an international response, with developing countries especially at risk from phony medications. Drug-resistant tuberculosis, for example, is fueled in part by watered-down medications sold in many poor countries.

"There can be nothing worse than for a patient to take a medication that either doesn't work or poisons the patient," said Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of health law at Georgetown University who led the IOM committee that studied how to combat the growing problem.

A mandatory drug-tracking system could use some form of barcodes or electronic tags to verify that a medication and the ingredients used to make it are authentic at every step, from the manufacturing of the active ingredient all the way to the pharmacy, he said. His committee examined fakes so sophisticated that health experts couldn't tell the difference between the packaging of the FDA-approved product and the look-alike.

"It's unreliable unless you know where it's been and can secure each point in the supply chain," Gostin said.

Patient safety advocates have pushed for that kind of tracking system for years, but attempts to include it in FDA drug-safety legislation last summer failed.

The report also concluded that:

—The World Health Organization should develop an international code of practice that sets guidelines for monitoring, regulation and law enforcement to crack down on fake drugs.

—States should beef up licensing requirements for the wholesalers and distributors who get a drug from its manufacturer to the pharmacy, hospital or doctor's office.

__Internet pharmacies are a particularly weak link, because fraudulent sites can mimic legitimate ones. The report urged wider promotion of the National Association of Boards of Pharmacy's online accreditation program as a tool to help consumers spot trustworthy sites.

The Institute of Medicine is an independent organization that advises the government on health matters.

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Wall Street rises, S&P hits highest since November '07

DEAR ABBY: My daughters are attractive young women, both doing well in their professional careers. "Melanie," who is 27, is married to "Sam," an extremely attractive and successful man.My 30-year-old daughter, "Alicia," has been divorced for a year. Her marriage failed two years ago because she and her husband had an appetite for sex outside their marriage. While I was disturbed about that, I was horrified to learn that Melanie allows her sister to occasionally have sex with Sam.Melanie's argument is that Sam is less likely to cheat given this situation. ...

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India Ink: In Kashmir, Clashes and Dwindling Supplies As Curfew Continues

The Kashmir Valley is on the fourth day of a government-imposed shutdown begun immediately after the hanging of the militant Muhammad Afzal, also known as Afzal Guru, who comes from the town of Sopore in Baramulla district.

Many residents are running out of food and milk in Srinagar, Kashmir’s summer capital. Meanwhile, dozens have been injured and at least one killed in protests against Mr. Afzal’s hanging, which happened secretly in Delhi on Saturday and was announced afterward.

Mr. Afzal, from the Jaish-e-Muhammad militant group, was convicted of conspiracy and sentenced to death by a special court in 2002 for his role in planning an attack on India’s Parliament in December 2001.

Schools, colleges and most shops in Kashmir are closed by government order, and people have been asked to stay inside their homes. Rows of shops and restaurants were shuttered.

Vehicles have been banned from the streets, cable news channels have gone dark, Internet service on cellphones has been blocked and newspapers were not being delivered. Hospitals, pharmacies and emergency services remain open.

In Srinagar, the only people in the deserted streets were security forces.

Officials in the area said they were taking preventive measures. During the past decade, many Kashmiris have opposed the death sentence for Mr. Afzal, saying he was being unfairly accused of the crime. His wife had requested a pardon from the Indian government, but her plea was denied.

Many Kashmiris were also outraged that the government letter carrying the news of execution reached Mr. Afzal’s widow in Sopore only after he died. The central government said Tuesday that Mr. Afzal’s family could visit his grave at te Tihar Jail in Delhi, but a date has yet to be decided, according to the Press Trust of India.

The ban on the movement of people and vehicles was imposed under Section 144 of India’s criminal procedure code, the same section invoked after protests over the recent Delhi gang rape, which prohibits the assembly of more than four people.

It was invoked by a district magistrate to prevent “a law and order problem,” Suresh Kumar, principal secretary in Jammu and Kashmir’s Department of Home Affairs, said in a telephone interview Tuesday. 

Mr. Afzal’s death was mourned across the valley through organized street protests that involved stone pelting, in defiance of the ban.

Three civilians have died and many have been injured over the last four days, officials said. Some news reports attributed all three deaths to protest-related activities, but Mr. Kumar said only one man died of injuries caused by the police. The other two drowned when their boat capsized, an incident unrelated to the violence, he said.

Obair Mushtaq, from the Baramulla district, died after he was shot, his relatives said. Farooq Ahmed, his uncle, said Obair was 13.

Mr. Ahmed said that on Sunday evening, a handful of children, including his nephew, were throwing stones at a passing military convoy. “It was not aggressive. We were laughing at them,” he said, crying over the phone. “We can’t understand why there is so much fighting. Why are our children dying?”

A Kashmir police official told India Ink that 60 people have been injured since Saturday in clashes between police and civilians. Forty of those were security officials and 20 were civilians, he said. He spoke on the condition of anonymity, saying that he feared for his life.

Additionally, there were about 60 incidents of stone pelting across the valley. “Most of the violence erupted in Sopore and Baramulla,” he said.

“People are not allowed to step out of their homes,” he added.Many residents described the past four days as the longest curfew since 2010, when the valley was shaken by mass pro-independence demonstrations. 

Manzoor Ahmed, who drives an auto-rickshaw, said that he hasn’t earned any money since the curfew was imposed on Saturday. “I haven’t stepped out of the house so I cannot even make the little money I do,” he said during a telephone interview. “The children cannot go to school.”

Mr. Ahmed said that his family was surviving on dal, a stew made of lentils, because there are no fresh vegetables available. “We have a backup supply of dal because we know things like this can happen,” he said.

In some areas, for a few hours in the evening, residents said they were allowed out of their homes to shop. Vegetables and milk are generally shipped into Srinagar, which is nestled in the mountains, from villages and other states during the winter months.

Mr. Mohammed, a hotel manager near the Dal Lake, who requested his first name not be used to avoid any retaliatory action, said that his hotel was running out of vegetables like peas and cauliflower, and guests were only being served beans and potatoes from storage. “The situation is quite bad,” he said.

For around two hours in the evening, a few stores selling basic groceries were open. But these shops have limited resources because the supply chain had been disrupted because of the ban on vehicles.

One businessman, who requested not be named to avoid possible retaliatory action by the police, said he hasn’t opened his crockery shop in downtown Srinagar in the past four days. “What choice do I have? They won’t let us step out,” he said. He estimated he has lost 60,000 rupees ($1,000) since Saturday.

The hanging of Mr. Afzal came as Kashmiris were planning protests to mark the death of Maqbool Bhatt, a pro-Kashmir independence leader who was hanged on Feb. 11, 1984. His death is considered the spark for two decades of unrest. Both men are buried at Tihar Jail in Delhi.

“Maqbool Bhatt inspired the insurgency while Afzal Guru was the product of it,” said Sheikh Showkat Hussain, a law professor at Kashmir University. 

He warned that Mr. Afazal’s hanging and the subsequent curfew would make the Kashmiri people’s “alienation with the government more deep rooted.”

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Westminster's Most Paw-some Moments - So Far!

People Pets

02/12/2013 at 11:00 AM EST

You snooze, you lose? Not when you're as adorable as this Bichon Frise

Frank Franklin II/AP

It may be Fat Tuesday, but as any dog lover knows, the real action is at the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show.

Dogs of every shape, size and color – including two new breeds who were admitted into competition this year – have taken over several New York City locations, including Madison Square Garden, and the contest is starting to get fur-rocious.

We know you'd rather be at home watching these pooches strut their stuff, but since you're probably otherwise occupied, here's a taste of all the canine pageantry taking place:

This Afghan Hound is 'hair' to stay

Monika Graff / Landov

Don't they know I need my beauty sleep? This Dogue de Bordeux, named Azlo, is ready to retire to his room at the Hotel Pennsylvania

Carlo Allegri / Landov

A kiss for good luck! There's no ill will between Boston terriers Gaga (left) and Spitzer

Keith Bedford / Landov

Last year's winner, Malachy, returns to the limelight to turn the Empire State Building purple and gold (with a little help from a furry friend) in honor of Westminster's kickoff

Bryan Smith / ZUMA

Check back tonight to see who takes home top prize!

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Pope shows lifetime jobs aren't always for life

The world seems surprised that an 85-year-old globe-trotting pope who just started tweeting wants to resign, but should it be? Maybe what should be surprising is that more leaders his age do not, considering the toll aging takes on bodies and minds amid a culture of constant communication and change.

There may be more behind the story of why Pope Benedict XVI decided to leave a job normally held for life. But the pontiff made it about age. He said the job called for "both strength of mind and body" and said his was deteriorating. He spoke of "today's world, subject to so many rapid changes," implying a difficulty keeping up despite his recent debut on Twitter.

"This seemed to me a very brave, courageous decision," especially because older people often don't recognize their own decline, said Dr. Seth Landefeld, an expert on aging and chairman of medicine at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

Age has driven many leaders from jobs that used to be for life — Supreme Court justices, monarchs and other heads of state. As lifetimes expand, the woes of old age are catching up with more in seats of power. Some are choosing to step down rather than suffer long declines and disabilities as the pope's last predecessor did.

Since 1955, only one U.S. Supreme Court justice — Chief Justice William Rehnquist — has died in office. Twenty-one others chose to retire, the most recent being John Paul Stevens, who stepped down in 2010 at age 90.

When Thurgood Marshall stepped down in 1991 at the age of 82, citing health reasons, the Supreme Court justice's answer was blunt: "What's wrong with me? I'm old. I'm getting old and falling apart."

One in 5 U.S. senators is 70 or older, and some have retired rather than seek new terms, such as Hawaii's Daniel Akaka, who left office in January at age 88.

The Netherlands' Queen Beatrix, who just turned 75, recently said she will pass the crown to a son and put the country "in the hands of a new generation."

In Germany, where the pope was born, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is 58, said the pope's decision that he was no longer fit for the job "earns my very highest respect."

"In our time of ever-lengthening life, many people will be able to understand how the pope as well has to deal with the burdens of aging," she told reporters in Berlin.

Experts on aging agreed.

"People's mental capacities in their 80s and 90s aren't what they were in their 40s and 50s. Their short-term memory is often not as good, their ability to think quickly on their feet, to execute decisions is often not as good," Landefeld said. Change is tougher to handle with age, and leaders like popes and presidents face "extraordinary demands that would tax anybody's physical and mental stamina."

Dr. Barbara Messinger-Rapport, geriatrics chief at the Cleveland Clinic, noted that half of people 85 and older in developed countries have some dementia, usually Alzheimer's. Even without such a disease, "it takes longer to make decisions, it takes longer to learn new things," she said.

But that's far from universal, said Dr. Thomas Perls, an expert on aging at Boston University and director of the New England Centenarians Study.

"Usually a man who is entirely healthy in his early 80s has demonstrated his survival prowess" and can live much longer, he said. People of privilege have better odds because they have access to good food and health care, and tend to lead clean lives.

"Even in the 1500s and 1600s there were popes in their 80s. It's remarkable. That would be today's centenarians," Perls said.

Arizona Sen. John McCain turned 71 while running for president in 2007. Had he won, he would have been the oldest person elected to a first term as president. Ronald Reagan was days away from turning 70 when he started his first term as president in 1981; he won re-election in 1984. Vice President Joe Biden just turned 70.

In the U.S. Senate, where seniority is rewarded and revered, South Carolina's Strom Thurmond didn't retire until age 100 in 2002. Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia was the longest-serving senator when he died in office at 92 in 2010.

Now the oldest U.S. senator is 89-year-old Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey. The oldest congressman is Ralph Hall of Texas who turns 90 in May.

The legendary Alan Greenspan was about to turn 80 when he retired as chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006; he still works as a consultant.

Elsewhere around the world, Cuba's Fidel Castro — one of the world's longest serving heads of state — stepped down in 2006 at age 79 due to an intestinal illness that nearly killed him, handing power to his younger brother Raul. But the island is an example of aged leaders pushing on well into their dotage. Raul Castro now is 81 and his two top lieutenants are also octogenarians. Later this month, he is expected to be named to a new, five-year term as president.

Other leaders who are still working:

—England's Queen Elizabeth, 86.

—Abdullah bin Abd al-Aziz al-Saud, king of Saudi Arabia, 88.

—Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, emir of Kuwait, 83.

—Ruth Bader Ginsburg, U.S. Supreme Court associate justice, 79.

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Associated Press writers Paul Haven in Havana, Cuba; David Rising in Berlin; Seth Borenstein, Mark Sherman and Matt Yancey in Washington, and researcher Judy Ausuebel in New York contributed to this report.

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Marilynn Marchione can be followed at http://twitter.com/MMarchioneAP

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Wall Street flat ahead of Obama speech

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were little changed on Tuesday, hovering near multi-year highs as traders awaited President Barack Obama's State of the Union address.

The economy will be one of the main topics of Obama's speech at 9 p.m. (0200 GMT Wednesday). Investors will listen for any clues on a deal with Republicans in Congress to avert automatic spending cuts due to take effect March 1.

The S&P 500 has risen in the past six weeks and is up more than 6 percent so far this year. Despite a dip in volume Monday and the sideways move this week the market is showing technical strength as it digests the recent gains.

"It's positive we haven't seen an urge to take profits after the run-up we had recently," said Peter Jankovskis, co-chief investment officer at OakBrook Investments in Lisle, Illinois.

He said it was natural for the market to be pausing amid a lack of major economic data points and with earnings season winding down, and markets will be attentively watching Obama's speech in Washington.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> rose 7.6 points or 0.05 percent, to 13,978.84, the S&P 500 <.spx> lost 0.27 points or 0.02 percent, to 1,516.74 and the Nasdaq Composite <.ixic> dropped 1.41 points or 0.04 percent, to 3,190.59.

Coca-Cola Co shares fell 1.5 percent to $38.04 after the world's largest soft drink maker reported quarterly earnings that were slightly better than expected as strength in emerging markets offset a decline in European business.

Avon Products shares jumped 13.4 percent to $19.59 after the beauty products company reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit.

Goodyear Tire & Rubber shares fell 4.6 percent to $13.27 after it posted a stronger-than-expected quarterly profit but cut its 2013 forecast due to weakness in the European automotive market.

Michael Kors Holdings shares soared 12 percent to $63.82 after the fashion company handily beat Wall Street's estimates and raised its full-year outlook.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Kenneth Barry and Nick Zieminski)

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The Lede: Latest Updates on the Pope’s Resignation

The Lede is providing updates on Pope Benedict XVI’s announcement on Monday that he intends to resign on Feb. 28, less than eight years after he took office, the first pope to do so in six centuries.

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Record $1 Million Bounty Offered for Fugitive Cop

By Andrea Billups

02/11/2013 at 09:15 AM EST

Undated photo of Christopher Dorner

LAPD/AP

Authorities in Los Angeles upped the ante Sunday on a bounty for Christopher Dorner, the fugitive former Los Angeles police officer who remains at large after killing another officer and targeting police and their families over his 2008 firing from the force.

Police announced a record $1 million reward for information leading to the capture of Dorner, 33, who has eluded capture for five days and whose angry 15,000-word "manifesto" threatened the lives of at least 50 former colleagues and their relatives.

The record bounty, described by police as the largest for a criminal investigation in Southern California, was posted Sunday and comes from donations from police unions, businesses and private investors who want Dorner captured and off the streets.

Security was tightened at the Staples Center in downtown for Sunday's 55th annual Grammy Awards, as police continued the largest manhunt ever for the Los Angeles area. The search focused on the San Bernandino mountains where Dorner's burned out truck was found abandoned near Big Bear Lake, as police offered security to lawe enforcement families mentioned in Dorner's rambling writings.

Dorner, a former U.S. Navy reservist, engaged in a shooting with two officers on Thursday, grazing one, before ambushing two other police while they were sitting in their patrol car at a stoplight. One was killed and the other was seriously wounded. The revenge killings came after Dorner had posted rants on his Facebook page last week over what he claimed was his wrongful firing from the LAPD.

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What heals traumatized kids? Answers are lacking

CHICAGO (AP) — Shootings and other traumatic events involving children are not rare events, but there's a startling lack of scientific evidence on the best ways to help young survivors and witnesses heal, a government-funded analysis found.

School-based counseling treatments showed the most promise, but there's no hard proof that anxiety drugs or other medication work and far more research is needed to provide solid answers, say the authors who reviewed 25 studies. Their report was sponsored by the federal Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

According to research cited in the report, about two-thirds of U.S. children and teens younger than 18 will experience at least one traumatic event, including shootings and other violence, car crashes and weather disasters. That includes survivors and witnesses of trauma. Most will not suffer any long-term psychological problems, but about 13 percent will develop symptoms of post-traumatic stress, including anxiety, behavior difficulties and other problems related to the event.

The report's conclusions don't mean that no treatment works. It's just that no one knows which treatments are best, or if certain ones work better for some children but not others.

"Our findings serve as a call to action," the researchers wrote in their analysis, published online Monday by the journal Pediatrics.

"This is a very important topic, just in light of recent events," said lead author Valerie Forman-Hoffman, a researcher at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.

She has two young children and said the results suggest that it's likely one of them will experience some kind of trauma before reaching adulthood. "As a parent I want to know what works best," the researcher said.

Besides the December massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut, other recent tragedies involving young survivors or witnesses include the fatal shooting last month of a 15-year-old Chicago girl gunned down in front of a group of friends; Superstorm Sandy in October; and the 2011 Joplin, Mo., tornado, whose survivors include students whose high school was destroyed.

Some may do fine with no treatment; others will need some sort of counseling to help them cope.

Studying which treatments are most effective is difficult because so many things affect how a child or teen will fare emotionally after a traumatic event, said Dr. Denise Dowd, an emergency physician and research director at Children's Mercy Hospitals and Clinics in Kansas City, Mo., who wrote a Pediatrics editorial.

One of the most important factors is how the child's parents handle the aftermath, Dowd said.

"If the parent is freaking out" and has difficulty controlling emotions, kids will have a tougher time dealing with trauma. Traumatized kids need to feel like they're in a safe and stable environment, and if their parents have trouble coping, "it's going to be very difficult for the kid," she said.

The researchers analyzed 25 studies of treatments that included anti-anxiety and depression drugs, school-based counseling, and various types of psychotherapy. The strongest evidence favored school-based treatments involving cognitive behavior therapy, which helps patients find ways to cope with disturbing thoughts and emotions, sometimes including talking repeatedly about their trauma.

This treatment worked better than nothing, but more research is needed comparing it with alternatives, the report says.

"We really don't have a gold standard treatment right now," said William Copeland, a psychologist and researcher at Duke University Medical Center who was not involved in the report. A lot of doctors and therapists may be "patching together a little bit of this and a little bit of that, and that might not add up to the most effective treatment for any given child," he said.

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Online:

Pediatrics: http://www.pediatrics.org

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